If you want to take a leap of faith, try following what everyone else is doing. Now that I’ve got your attention, what im saying is actually the anti-thesis of winning sports betting. The reality is that the public is often wrong. Few in the sports betting world are actually experts on anything, especially the NFL.
There are those who play fanasty football, participate in the familiar weekly office football pools and give action to their bookies on a regular basis. There are even tv shows where a guru has “5000 star plays” that are guaranteed winners. All of this is is merely hype that is aimed at convincing you that they know the way to riches.
The point of all this is that most people are wrong in their assumptions and fueled by a bias towards their favorite team, rather than which one has the best chances of winning.
When the general public is so determined that Cincinnati has a chance to cover against Pittsburgh they often bet with their hearts so strongly that they move the line. This is a distinct advantage that one might miss if he weren’t watching closely.
This fact is no more important anywhere then it is in the NFL odds. Here, there are key numbers that are more valuable in than anywhere else. In the NFL, many spreads will end up on either side of numbers that are divisible by the scoring numbers. That is, 3, 7, 10 etc. all of which are regularly scored amounts. Since many games are decided by 7 points, there is tremendous value in the difference of a spread being 7 vs 7 ½. Also it is because of this value that an advantage can be found when the line moves from 7 to 7 ½. Bookmakers are reluctant to move that line because, in reality, that extra ½ point means another score.
Since the public is most often wrong in their reasoning you can take advantage of this by betting against, or fading, them. This is especially true when the line moves across a key number. When the action is so heavy on one particular side of a game that the odds makers change the line across one of these key numbers, it’s actually like an omen that not only is the public going to be wrong again but that they are adamant about being wrong. Keep in mind that the main job of a bookmaker is to use the NFL odds to keep the same amount of action on both sides of the game and not to decide who will win by a certain number
Taking your sports betting to the next level is like investing, it involves a great deal of patience and prudent choices. The homework side of professional sports wagering is such an unexciting element that you don’t need to spend countless hours performing when you have an ally to help you do it.
This is the time to take your betting up a notch or two and compare the line movements of the NFL games. Covers.com offers you the chance to see how the lines are moving in other sports books by taking a comparative look at them. This, combined with the expert opinions can give you the exacting edge you are looking for to make you a consistent winner.